Ollie Gordon II — $174 · FFX
RB · MIAMI DOLPHINS · RB74 · #179 OVERALL · QUESTIONABLE
Ollie Gordon II
Why this price: thin edge: 0.3 ppg over the RB line, so small changes swing the price; team projection MIA 20.5->17.3 ppg; carry share 15%->13%

PRICE · 2025 WEEK 17
$174−16.7%1W−63%SINCE '25 DRAFTHIGH $464
AGE21Jan 15, 2004
EXPRookiesince 2025
HEIGHT6'2"
WEIGHT225 lb
COLLEGEOklahoma State
DRAFT2025 · 6th rdpick 179
RANKRB74#179 overall
PRICE HISTORY
PPR 12-TEAM 1QB · MODEL-ONLY, NO SENTIMENT2025 ROLE
WHAT IT ACTUALLY WAS · WEEK BY WEEKCARRY SHARE16%actual · 17 games TARGET SHARE2%actual · 17 gamesL4 1%
What the model expected
2025 PRESEASON PROJECTION · PER GAME · VS 168 RBSProjected games
13.782nd
expected · of 17 scheduled
Full season stats
2025 · REGULAR SEASON · PERCENTILE VS 97 RBSRUSHINGCARRIESCAR/GRUSH YDSYPCRUSH TD1ST DOWNSRZ CARGL CARRYOE/ATT
The offense he plays in
PLAY-BY-PLAY TENDENCIES · RANKED AGAINST THE LEAGUE THAT SEASONMIKE MCDANIEL
MIAMI DOLPHINS · 2025 · 17 GAMES OF TAPE RANKED IN ITS OWN SEASONPass rate over expected27TH OF 32
−5.6%runs more than the situation asks
Neutral pass rate27TH OF 32
53%run-first in a script game
Boom or bust
2025 · PPR · VS 97 RBSWeeks 20+ pts
00th
of 17 games
Weeks under 10
1511th
of 17 games · fewer is better
Splits
2025 · REGULAR SEASON · PPRSPLITGPPGVS SEASONTOUCH/GYDS/G
Home91.9−1.23.29
Away84.6+1.46.318
Weeks 1 to 993.7+0.55.317
2025 game log
PPR · REGULAR SEASON · @ = AWAYWKOPPCARYDSYPCTDTGTRECRYDSSNAP%RZGLRYOEPTS
W1@IND242.0011-125%10–1.3
W2NE18
● SEASON HIGH● SEASON LOW● INJURY DESIGNATION■ BYE
SNAP SHARE22%actual · 17 games
Rush yards
20.843rd
projected per game
Targets
1.752nd
projected per game
Receptions
1.352nd
projected per game
Total TDs
0.2346th
rushing + receiving, per game
Points by week
3.2 PPG · 17 GP
RECEIVING AND EFFICIENCYTGTTGT %RECREC YDSSNAP %EFFIC8+ BOX %RUSH EPA
Plays per game31ST OF 32
55.4fewer snaps to go around
Red zone pass rate14TH OF 32
54%throws for touchdowns
Average depth of target26TH OF 32
7.1 ydthrows short
EPA per play22ND OF 32
−0.018a struggling offense
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTEDW1–W18
Above the line the plan was to throw; below it, to run.
WHERE THE TARGETS GO
WR 53%TE 23%RB 25%
MIKE MCDANIEL · CAREERRECORD35–35
WIN %50%
SEASONS4
PLAYOFFS2
Where he sits
2025 · 97 RBSFloor
-0.10th
10th percentile week
Ceiling
10.135th
90th percentile week
Weeks 10 to 18
8
2.6
−0.6
3.9
10
Division games63.8+0.65.714
Non-division112.9−0.34.113
Points distribution
17 GP · 5-POINT BUCKETS
8.0
0
1
1
5
12%
0
0
–
2.3
W3@BUF9384.2100025%32–9.8
W5@CAR3-2-0.7000025%00–-0.2
W7@CLE5112.2021231%10–2.3
W8@ATL10464.60112030%30+0.3913.6
W10BUF1-3-3.000006%00–-0.3
W11WAS9455.0100039%63–10.5
W14@NYJ5173.4100025%10–7.7
W15@PIT200.0000012%00–0.0
W16CIN1-1-1.000005%00–-0.1
CAR carriesYDS rushing yardsYPC yards per carryTD rushing touchdownsTGT targetsREC receptionsRYDS receiving yardsSNAP% offensive snap shareRZ red-zone carries + targetsGL goal-line carriesRYOE rush yards over expected per carry (ngs)