Ray Davis — $172 · FFX
RB · BUFFALO BILLS · RB76 · #183 OVERALL
Ray Davis
Why this price: 2.6 pts last game (1 car, 4 yds, 0 TD)
PRICE · 2025 WEEK 17
$172−2.8%1W−80%SINCE '25 DRAFTHIGH $851
AGE25Nov 20, 1999
EXP1 yrsince 2024
HEIGHT5'8"
WEIGHT211 lb
COLLEGEKentucky
DRAFT2024 · 4th rdpick 128
RANKRB76#183 overall
PRICE HISTORY
PPR 12-TEAM 1QB · MODEL-ONLY, NO SENTIMENT2025 ROLE
WHAT IT ACTUALLY WAS · WEEK BY WEEKCARRY SHARE9%actual · 17 games TARGET SHARE3%actual · 17 gamesL4 6%
What the model expected
2025 PRESEASON PROJECTION · PER GAME · VS 168 RBSProjected games
13.642nd
expected · of 17 scheduled
Full season stats
2025 · REGULAR SEASON · PERCENTILE VS 97 RBSRUSHINGCARRIESCAR/GRUSH YDSYPCRUSH TD1ST DOWNSRZ CARGL CARRYOE/ATT
The offense he plays in
PLAY-BY-PLAY TENDENCIES · RANKED AGAINST THE LEAGUE THAT SEASONSEAN MCDERMOTT
BUFFALO BILLS · 2025 · 17 GAMES OF TAPEPass rate over expected17TH OF 32
−3.1%runs more than the situation asks
Neutral pass rate29TH OF 32
51%run-first in a script game
Boom or bust
2025 · PPR · VS 97 RBSWeeks 20+ pts
154th
of 17 games
Splits
2025 · REGULAR SEASON · PPRSPLITGPPGVS SEASONTOUCH/GYDS/G
Home93.3−0.53.422
Away84.3+0.65.021
Weeks 1 to 981.9−1.83.48
Career
2024–2025 · 2 SEASONS · REGULAR SEASONPOINTS PER GAME BY SEASON
PPRCARRIES PER GAME BY SEASON
RB2025 game log
PPR · REGULAR SEASON · @ = AWAYWKOPPCARYDSYPCTDTGTRECRYDSSNAP%RZGLRYOEPTS
W1BAL122.0011-112%10–1.1
W2@NYJ924
● SEASON HIGH● SEASON LOW● INJURY DESIGNATION■ BYE
SNAP SHARE14%actual · 17 games
Rush yards
27.260th
projected per game
Targets
1.958th
projected per game
Receptions
1.457th
projected per game
Total TDs
0.3769th
rushing + receiving, per game
Points by week
3.8 PPG · 17 GP
RECEIVING AND EFFICIENCYTGTTGT %RECREC YDSSNAP %EFFIC8+ BOX %RUSH EPA
Plays per game9TH OF 32
62.6more snaps to go around
Red zone pass rate27TH OF 32
43%runs for touchdowns
Average depth of target23RD OF 32
7.2 ydthrows short
EPA per play2ND OF 32
+0.136an efficient offense
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTEDW1–W18
Above the line the plan was to throw; below it, to run.
WHERE THE TARGETS GO
WR 56%TE 25%RB 18%
SEAN MCDERMOTT · CAREERRECORD106–58
WIN %65%
SEASONS9
PLAYOFFS8
Where he sits
2025 · 97 RBS
of 17 games · fewer is better
Floor
0.03rd
10th percentile week
Ceiling
7.729th
90th percentile week
Weeks 10 to 18
9
5.4
+1.6
4.9
33
Division games65.2+1.46.735
Non-division113.0−0.82.814
Points distribution
17 GP · 5-POINT BUCKETS
SEASONTEAMGPPGCARRUSH YDSYPCRUSH TDTGTRECREC YDSSNAP %RZ
2025BUF173.8582754.7013108614%12
2024BUF176.81134423.93191718924%22
2.7
0
0
0
0
27%
1
0
–
2.4
W8@CAR9161.8010024%22–1.6
W10@MIA2-2-1.0021010%10–0.8
W13@PIT9626.9000018%00–6.2
W16@CLE3144.70222016%00–5.4
W17PHI144.00111213%00–2.6
W18NYJ211517.20222364%50+2.4025.4
CAR carriesYDS rushing yardsYPC yards per carryTD rushing touchdownsTGT targetsREC receptionsRYDS receiving yardsSNAP% offensive snap shareRZ red-zone carries + targetsGL goal-line carriesRYOE rush yards over expected per carry (ngs)