Ray Davis — $172 · FFX
RB · BUFFALO BILLS · RB44 · #144 OVERALL
Ray Davis
Why this price: team projection BUF 29.2->25.0 ppg; 2.3 pts last game (6 car, 9 yds, 0 TD)
PRICE · 2024 WEEK 17
$826−7.2%1W−32%SINCE '24 DRAFTHIGH $1,209
AGE24Nov 20, 1999
EXPRookiesince 2024
HEIGHT5'8"
WEIGHT211 lb
COLLEGEKentucky
DRAFT2024 · 4th rdpick 128
RANKRB44#144 overall
PRICE HISTORY
PPR 12-TEAM 1QB · MODEL-ONLY, NO SENTIMENT2024 ROLE
WHAT IT ACTUALLY WAS · WEEK BY WEEKCARRY SHARE23%actual · 17 games TARGET SHARE4%actual · 17 gamesL4 6%
What the model expected
2024 PRESEASON PROJECTION · PER GAME · VS 163 RBSProjected games
13.772nd
expected · of 17 scheduled
Full season stats
2024 · REGULAR SEASON · PERCENTILE VS 99 RBSRUSHINGCARRIESCAR/GRUSH YDSYPCRUSH TD1ST DOWNSRZ CARGL CARRYOE/ATT
The offense he plays in
PLAY-BY-PLAY TENDENCIES · RANKED AGAINST THE LEAGUE THAT SEASONSEAN MCDERMOTT
BUFFALO BILLS · 2024 · 17 GAMES OF TAPEPass rate over expected13TH OF 32
−2.2%throws more than the situation asks
Neutral pass rate13TH OF 32
56%pass-first in a script game
Boom or bust
2024 · PPR · VS 99 RBSWeeks 20+ pts
00th
of 17 games
Splits
2024 · REGULAR SEASON · PPRSPLITGPPGVS SEASONTOUCH/GYDS/G
Home87.8+1.06.838
Away95.9−0.98.736
Weeks 1 to 997.7+0.88.046
Career
2024–2025 · 2 SEASONS · REGULAR SEASONPOINTS PER GAME BY SEASON
PPRCARRIES PER GAME BY SEASON
RB2024 game log
PPR · REGULAR SEASON · @ = AWAYWKOPPCARYDSYPCTDTGTRECRYDSSNAP%RZGLRYOEPTS
W1ARI3134.30111410%10–3.7
W2@MIA929
● SEASON HIGH● SEASON LOW● INJURY DESIGNATION■ BYE
SNAP SHARE24%actual · 17 games
Rush yards
23.353rd
projected per game
Targets
2.163rd
projected per game
Receptions
1.663rd
projected per game
Total TDs
0.3464th
rushing + receiving, per game
Points by week
6.8 PPG · 17 GP
RECEIVING AND EFFICIENCYTGTTGT %RECREC YDSSNAP %EFFIC8+ BOX %RUSH EPA
Plays per game29TH OF 32
59.1fewer snaps to go around
Red zone pass rate26TH OF 32
45%runs for touchdowns
Average depth of target9TH OF 32
8.2 ydthrows downfield
EPA per play2ND OF 32
+0.192an efficient offense
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTEDW1–W18
Above the line the plan was to throw; below it, to run.
SEAN MCDERMOTT · CAREERRECORD106–58
WIN %65%
SEASONS9
PLAYOFFS8
Where he sits
2024 · 99 RBS
of 17 games · fewer is better
Floor
0.944th
10th percentile week
Ceiling
15.557th
90th percentile week
Weeks 10 to 18
8
5.9
−1.0
7.5
28
Division games69.9+3.111.763
Non-division115.1−1.75.623
Points distribution
17 GP · 5-POINT BUCKETS
SEASONTEAMGPPGCARRUSH YDSYPCRUSH TDTGTRECREC YDSSNAP %RZ
2025BUF173.8582754.7013108614%12
2024BUF176.81134423.93191718924%22
3.2
0
1
1
-1
31%
0
0
–
3.8
W4@BAL7111.6000017%00–1.1
W6@NYJ20974.80335558%60+0.3618.2
W7TEN5418.2111624%20–11.7
W8@SEA6294.8000022%10–2.9
W9MIA4205.00227014%11–17.0
W10@IND362.0000015%00–0.6
W13SF11635.7111433%21+2.1413.7
W15@DET7152.10221426%20–10.9
W16NE5122.40111724%00–3.9
W18@NE15644.3032152%30+0.7114.5
CAR carriesYDS rushing yardsYPC yards per carryTD rushing touchdownsTGT targetsREC receptionsRYDS receiving yardsSNAP% offensive snap shareRZ red-zone carries + targetsGL goal-line carriesRYOE rush yards over expected per carry (ngs)