Rico Dowdle — $3,352 · FFX
RB · CAROLINA PANTHERS · RB21 · #38 OVERALL
Rico Dowdle
Why this price: team projection CAR 19.1->19.6 ppg; 9.3 pts last game (12 car, 59 yds, 0 TD)
PRICE · 2025 WEEK 17
$3,352+2.7%1W+315%SINCE '25 DRAFTHIGH $4,208
AGE27Jun 14, 1998
EXP5 yrssince 2020
HEIGHT6'0"
WEIGHT215 lb
COLLEGESouth Carolina
DRAFTUDFA
RANKRB21#38 overall
PRICE HISTORY
PPR 12-TEAM 1QB · MODEL-ONLY, NO SENTIMENT2025 ROLE
WHAT IT ACTUALLY WAS · WEEK BY WEEKCARRY SHARE52%actual · 17 games TARGET SHARE11%actual · 17 gamesL4 14%
What the model expected
2025 PRESEASON PROJECTION · PER GAME · VS 168 RBSProjected games
13.792nd
expected · of 17 scheduled
Full season stats
2025 · REGULAR SEASON · PERCENTILE VS 97 RBSRUSHINGCARRIESCAR/GRUSH YDSYPCRUSH TD1ST DOWNSRZ CARGL CARRYOE/ATT
The offense he plays in
PLAY-BY-PLAY TENDENCIES · RANKED AGAINST THE LEAGUE THAT SEASONDAVE CANALES
CAROLINA PANTHERS · 2025 · 17 GAMES OF TAPEPass rate over expected28TH OF 32
−5.9%runs more than the situation asks
Neutral pass rate20TH OF 32
54%run-first in a script game
Boom or bust
2025 · PPR · VS 97 RBSWeeks 20+ pts
379th
of 17 games
Splits
2025 · REGULAR SEASON · PPRSPLITGPPGVS SEASONTOUCH/GYDS/G
Home815.7+2.919.3102
Away910.1−2.614.762
Weeks 1 to 9914.6+1.916.896
Career
2020–2025 · 5 SEASONS · REGULAR SEASONPOINTS PER GAME BY SEASON
PPR
2025 game log
PPR · REGULAR SEASON · @ = AWAYWKOPPCARYDSYPCTDTGTRECRYDSSNAP%RZGLRYOEPTS
W1@JAX3124.0032434%00–3.6
W2@ARI69
● SEASON HIGH● SEASON LOW● INJURY DESIGNATION■ BYE
SNAP SHARE56%actual · 17 games
Rush yards
30.661st
projected per game
Targets
1.857th
projected per game
Receptions
1.456th
projected per game
Total TDs
0.3160th
rushing + receiving, per game
Points by week
12.7 PPG · 17 GP
RECEIVING AND EFFICIENCYTGTTGT %RECREC YDSSNAP %EFFIC8+ BOX %RUSH EPA
Plays per game23RD OF 32
58.6fewer snaps to go around
Red zone pass rate26TH OF 32
46%runs for touchdowns
Average depth of target29TH OF 32
6.7 ydthrows short
EPA per play26TH OF 32
−0.052a struggling offense
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTEDW1–W18
Above the line the plan was to throw; below it, to run.
WHERE THE TARGETS GO
WR 60%TE 21%RB 19%
DAVE CANALES · CAREERRECORD13–22
WIN %37%
SEASONS2
PLAYOFFS1
Where he sits
2025 · 97 RBS
of 17 games · fewer is better
Floor
3.466th
10th percentile week
Ceiling
29.895th
90th percentile week
Weeks 10 to 18
8
10.6
−2.1
16.9
63
Division games610.8−1.916.555
Non-division1113.8+1.017.095
Points distribution
17 GP · 5-POINT BUCKETS
CARRIES PER GAME BY SEASON
RBSEASONTEAMGPPGCARRUSH YDSYPCRUSH TDTGTRECREC YDSSNAP %RZ
2025CAR1712.72361,0764.66503929756%41
2024DAL1612.42351,0794.62493924957%33
2023DAL165.7893614.12221714422%23
2022DAL20.000–00002%–
2020DAL50.57243.400001%1
1.5
0
1
1
10
29%
3
2
–
2.9
W3ATL10303.0111840%42−2.5210.8
W4@NE9323.6011-239%00–4.0
W5MIA232069.01432867%41+5.0132.4
W6DAL301836.10545688%30+1.1833.9
W7@NYJ17794.60211746%10+0.9410.6
W9@GB251305.22321172%42+1.7528.1
W10NO18532.91331079%31−0.3715.3
W11@ATL19452.40755582%100−0.6715.0
W12@SF6386.30443665%20–11.4
W13LA18583.20222142%00−0.119.9
W15@NO16493.1111560%21−0.9712.4
W16TB9293.20641457%20–8.3
W17SEA12594.9053464%00+0.689.3
W18@TB7101.40222053%10–3.0
CAR carriesYDS rushing yardsYPC yards per carryTD rushing touchdownsTGT targetsREC receptionsRYDS receiving yardsSNAP% offensive snap shareRZ red-zone carries + targetsGL goal-line carriesRYOE rush yards over expected per carry (ngs)