Jaylen Warren — $3,116 · FFX
RB · PITTSBURGH STEELERS · RB24 · #41 OVERALL
Jaylen Warren
Why this price: model ppg 11.8->11.3 (efficiency / teammates); team projection PIT 23.0->21.1 ppg; carry share 52%->49%
PRICE · 2025 WEEK 17
$3,116−10.3%1W+57%SINCE '25 DRAFTHIGH $4,859
AGE26Nov 1, 1998
EXP3 yrssince 2022
HEIGHT5'8"
WEIGHT215 lb
COLLEGEOklahoma State
DRAFTUDFA
RANKRB24#41 overall
PRICE HISTORY
PPR 12-TEAM 1QB · MODEL-ONLY, NO SENTIMENT2025 ROLE
WHAT IT ACTUALLY WAS · WEEK BY WEEKCARRY SHARE59%actual · 16 games TARGET SHARE10%actual · 16 gamesL4 7%
What the model expected
2025 PRESEASON PROJECTION · PER GAME · VS 168 RBSProjected games
13.630th
expected · of 17 scheduled
Full season stats
2025 · REGULAR SEASON · PERCENTILE VS 97 RBSRUSHINGCARRIESCAR/GRUSH YDSYPCRUSH TD1ST DOWNSRZ CARGL CARRYOE/ATT
The offense he plays in
PLAY-BY-PLAY TENDENCIES · RANKED AGAINST THE LEAGUE THAT SEASONMIKE TOMLIN
PITTSBURGH STEELERS · 2025 · 17 GAMES OF TAPEPass rate over expected9TH OF 32
−0.6%throws more than the situation asks
Neutral pass rate10TH OF 32
58%pass-first in a script game
Boom or bust
2025 · PPR · VS 97 RBSWeeks 20+ pts
154th
of 16 games
Splits
2025 · REGULAR SEASON · PPRSPLITGPPGVS SEASONTOUCH/GYDS/G
Home812.0−1.615.670
Away815.2+1.616.492
Weeks 1 to 9714.1+0.517.685
Career
2022–2025 · 4 SEASONS · REGULAR SEASONPOINTS PER GAME BY SEASON
PPRCARRIES PER GAME BY SEASON
2025 game log
PPR · REGULAR SEASON · @ = AWAYWKOPPCARYDSYPCTDTGTRECRYDSSNAP%RZGLRYOEPTS
W1@NYJ11373.40222245%51−0.6113.9
W2SEA1448
● SEASON HIGH● SEASON LOW● INJURY DESIGNATION■ BYE
SNAP SHARE51%actual · 16 games
Rush yards
42.279th
projected per game
Targets
3.187th
projected per game
Receptions
2.590th
projected per game
Total TDs
0.4577th
rushing + receiving, per game
Points by week
13.6 PPG · 16 GP
RECEIVING AND EFFICIENCYTGTTGT %RECREC YDSSNAP %EFFIC8+ BOX %RUSH EPA
Plays per game28TH OF 32
57.4fewer snaps to go around
Red zone pass rate13TH OF 32
55%throws for touchdowns
Average depth of target32ND OF 32
5.8 ydthrows short
EPA per play16TH OF 32
+0.019an efficient offense
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTEDW1–W18
Above the line the plan was to throw; below it, to run.
WHERE THE TARGETS GO
WR 45%TE 30%RB 25%
MIKE TOMLIN · CAREERRECORD201–126–2
WIN %61%
SEASONS19
PLAYOFFS13
Where he sits
2025 · 97 RBS
of 16 games · fewer is better
Floor
8.192nd
10th percentile week
Ceiling
18.669th
90th percentile week
Weeks 10 to 18
9
13.2
−0.4
14.8
77
Division games612.2−1.414.786
Non-division1014.4+0.816.878
Points distribution
16 GP · 5-POINT BUCKETS
RB
SEASONTEAMGPPGCARRUSH YDSYPCRUSH TDTGTRECREC YDSSNAP %RZ
2025PIT1613.62119584.56454033351%46
2024PIT158.31205114.31473831045%24
2023PIT1711.61497845.34746137049%26
2022PIT165.8773794.91332821431%18
3.4
0
4
4
86
58%
3
1
+0.36
17.4
W3@NE18472.60653480%52−0.8213.1
W6CLE11524.70221153%10+1.178.3
W7@CIN161277.90543165%21+3.9219.8
W8GB13624.80321162%10+0.299.3
W9IND16311.9222-256%53−0.8816.9
W10@LAC14705.00222146%10+1.0711.1
W11CIN10626.2022528%00+2.478.7
W12@CHI18683.8100050%31−0.1312.8
W13BUF10353.5142956%31−0.7612.4
W14@BAL8131.60334950%20–15.2
W15MIA12332.80331545%32−0.807.8
W16@DET1414310.2222849%40+6.8129.1
W17@CLE12645.3000032%00+0.966.4
W18BAL14664.70553337%72+0.9014.9
CAR carriesYDS rushing yardsYPC yards per carryTD rushing touchdownsTGT targetsREC receptionsRYDS receiving yardsSNAP% offensive snap shareRZ red-zone carries + targetsGL goal-line carriesRYOE rush yards over expected per carry (ngs)